You can see how the business cycle clock operates starting from the point of period that you choose. (MoM : Month-on-Month)
- Definition : It is the index of production by mining, manufacturing, and electricity and gas industry with the 2015 monthly production average considered as 100 base. - Source : Mining and Manufacturing Industry Trend Research by Statistics Korea - Scope : 485 main products from mining, manufacturing and electricity and gas industry according to the Korea Standard Industrial Classification(KSIC). - Research subjects : Aprox. 7,300.
- Definition : It is a monthly index of the service industry production with 2015 as base year(2015=100). The value added weight of each sector of the service industry is applied in the index, which represents the relative importance of each sector. The index has the purpose of understanding both the production activity of the whole and each sector of the service industry. - Source : Service Industry Trend Research by Statistics Korea - Scope : 13 main categories related to the service industry from the Korea Standard Industrial Classification(KSIC). - Research subjects: Aprox. 17,300.
- Definition : Monthly index of automobiles(451) and retail sales(47) from the Service Industry Trend Research, with 2015 as base year(2015=100). The purpose of the index is to show the consumption trend. - Source : Service Industry Trend Research by Statistics Korea - Scope : Automobile sales(451) and retail sales(47) from the Korea Standard Industrial Classification(KSIC). But, retail sales exclude the sales of used products, retail sales via stalls and similar mobile retail sales and other outlet shop sales. - Research subjects : Aprox. 2,700.
- Definition : Monthly index of the estimation of equipment investment amount (fixed amount) using 2015 as base year(2015=100), with the purpose of understanding the domestic equipment investment trend. The estimation is calculated using the so-called 'Simplified commodity flow method'. It is based upon the assumption that we can obtain the equipment investment portion by substracting the intermediate consumption, final consumption, changes in inventories, and exports from the aggregate supply of equipment investment goods defined by the sum of domestic production and imports of equipment goods. * equipment investment = (domestic shipment + imports) - intermediate demand - consumption - Source : Mining and manufacturing research, industrial production and producer's inventory index by Statistics Korea. - Scope : 65 sectors which are composed of total of 381 basic categories.
- Definition : Total amount of completed constructions during the research period(1st ~ last day of the previous month). - Source : Construction Business Cycle Trend Research by the Statistics Korea. - Scope : Domestic construction from the「F.Construction Industry」category of the Korea Standard Industrial Classification(KSIC) - Research subjects : Construction companies registered under the Minister of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs, which have high level of construction completion and maintain 50% of the main construction plan.
- Source : Trade Statistics by Korea Customs Service - Contents : Products - Food material, direct consumer goods, raw materials and fuel, light industry products, heavy chemical products. - Deflator : Export prices index (in dollars).
- Source : Trade Statistics by Korea Customs Service - Contents : Products - consumer goods, capital goods, raw materials - Deflator : Import prices index (in dollars).
- Definition : Person who worked more than 1 hour during the research period (the week in which the 15th day of the month is) with the purpose of obtaining income. - Source : Economically Active Population Survey by Statistics Korea - Research subjects : Person living within the sample population area of 35,000 households, and is more than 15 years old at each 15th day of the month.
- Definition : An indexed and compounded survey that provides information about the manufacturing industry’s performance. The survey contains the performance and future outlook of each corporate’s main business activities such as industry’s current conditions, sales and profitability. - Source : The Bank of Korea’s Business Survey. - Research subjects : Total of 3,696 corporations in Korea (23 manufacturing companies, 13 non- manufacturing companies).
- Definition : It represents the consumer's expectations of domestic economic situation, living standards and consumer spending plan 6 months later. - Source : The Bank of Korea’s Consumer Survey(before August 2008, Statistics Korea's Consumer Prospect Survey) - Research households : Sample of 2,500 households living in cities. - Research period : The week in which the 15th day is.
|Peak||01 / 1992||03 / 1996||08 / 2000||12 / 2002||01 / 2008||08 / 2011||09 / 2017|
|Trough||01 / 1993||08 / 1998||07 / 2001||04 / 2005||02 / 2009||03 / 2013||/|
According to the business cycle clock in August, retail sales is located in the expansion phase(green quadrant), while imports is located in the recession phase(red quadrant). In comparison with July's clock, industrial production, services, retail sales, exports, empolyed persons, business survey index(BSI), consumer expectation index are increased while value of construction completed, imports are decreased.
Each quadrant has the following meaning. ○ Green quadrant : MoM increase of economic indicators(cyclical change components), above trend ○ Orange quadrant : MoM decrease of economic indicators(cyclical change components), above trend ○ Red quadrant : MoM decrease of economic indicators(cyclical change components), below trend ○ Yellow quadrant : MoM increase of economic indicators(cyclical change components), below trend Note 1. Individual indicators of the business cycle clock are made by using a cyclical component where seasonal, irregular and trend factors are removed and cyclical component’s monthly change, so its direction might be different form the original series or the seasonally adjusted series. 2. Each of the individual indicators’ latest location within the 4 quadrants might change as data is renewed every month due to the filtering method of the cyclical component. 3. The business cycle clock is scheduled to be updated near the beginning days of every month. October 8, 2020 updated